Diamondbacks-Cardinals Showdown: Monday's MLB Top Picks and Predictions

Cardinals' Lynn faces potential regression in upcoming games

by Zain ul Abedin
Diamondbacks-Cardinals Showdown: Monday's MLB Top Picks and Predictions
© Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

The most intriguing Monday MLB matchup involves the Arizona Diamondbacks vs. the St. Louis Cardinals, as an early look at the betting lines shows an obvious and tight battle on the field, and the moneyline may offer a valuable pick.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals – The series opens on Monday night with Brandon Pfaadt, the first pitch in the Monday night pitching duel, and the aged ace, Lance Lynn, on the mound. Lance Lynn, boasting a commendable 2.18 ERA thus far into the season, contrasts sharply with Pfaadt's higher 5.32.

However, underlying metrics hint at a shift in performance trajectory for both starters. Pfaadt, with a Pitching+ of 108 and a more promising 3.57 xFIP this year, indicates potential underestimation by his ERA. His improving ground ball rate of 37.5% and a strikeout rate of 22.8% suggest he’s poised for better outcomes, especially as his inflated .319 BABIP normalizes.

Lynn's Unsustainable Form

Conversely, Lynn’s performance might be peaking prematurely, suggested by a 4.43 xFIP that belies his low ERA. His 87.6% strand rate and .241 BABIP seem unsustainable, particularly with a Stuff+ rating of only 82 and a concerning 45.2% hard-hit rate.

These factors imply that Lynn’s effectiveness could diminish as the season progresses. Arizona's lineup has demonstrated superior discipline and power at the plate this season, with a wRC+ of 105 compared to St. Louis’s 82.

Additionally, the Diamondbacks excel in defensive metrics, further tilting the scales in their favor. Their disciplined approach and stronger overall batting statistics indicate a potential edge over the Cardinals, who have struggled with a lower BB/K ratio and less power hitting.

With such statistical insights, the Diamondbacks emerge as the smart betting choice for Monday’s game, offering a strong case for a bet on their moneyline. Bettors and fans should look for Arizona to capitalize on St. Louis’s potential vulnerabilities, making this matchup one to watch closely as the season unfolds.

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