Guardians vs Angels: Today's MLB Odds & Picks | Sept 9

Despite setbacks, Giolito's numbers hint at promising resilience

by Faizan Chaudhary
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Guardians vs Angels: Today's MLB Odds & Picks | Sept 9
© Jason Miller/GettyImages

Lucas Giolito, with a 4.88 ERA and 156 2/3 innings pitched, is set to make his second start for Cleveland as he returns to Los Angeles. His debut game for the Guardians was far from impressive, having allowed a painful nine earned runs against the Twins on Monday, thus jeopardizing Cleveland's chances of seizing a division title.

In a counter move, Los Angeles is entrusting the mound to Tyler Anderson, who carries a 5.56 ERA over 128 innings. Anderson's recent performances haven't been stellar either, boasting a hefty 6.14 ERA in his last nine starts.

Surprisingly, the Guardians seem to have the upper hand in the batting department when they go against a depleted Angels lineup. In the past month, Cleveland recorded a wRC+ of 92, boasting a decent K/BB ratio of 0.38. Unless unforeseen absences occur, the Guardians are poised to present their best against LHP.

Giolito's Bounce-Back Potential

Giolito's recent stats have been concerning, with an alarming ERA of 8.53 over his last 44 and 1/3 innings. Batters have averaged .292 and slugged .635 against him. Yet, his xwoba remains consistent, and his xFIP over these outings stands at a decent 4.45.

Armed with a Stuff+ rating of 95 and a 102 Location+ and Pitching+ score of 101, Giolito's statistics suggest that there's potential for a bounce-back. On the Angels' side, the last 30 days have witnessed them near the bottom of the league with a wRC+ of just 80.

Although their weakened lineup has shown some promise recently, their long-term performance remains uncertain. Star player Nolan Schanuel's recent injury during last night's game is a blow, but fans are hopeful as manager Phil Nevin hints at Shohei Ohtani's possible return tonight.

Tyler Anderson's recent record resembles Giolito's slump, with xwoba and xERA of .343 and 5.02 respectively. Post All-Star break, he has an average xFIP of 5.23 over nine starts. This season, he has a Stuff+ rating of 91 and a Location+ score of 99.

Adding to the Angels' woes is their bullpen, which recently posted a discouraging 4.79 ERA, a figure that has plunged to a 6.84 ERA and 5.36 xFIP in the last month. With all the data on the table, it's evident that the Guardians have an edge.

Giolito, despite recent setbacks, remains a stronger choice over Anderson. If Ohtani remains benched, Cleveland's offensive lineup could be more potent. The Angels' bullpen's recent downturn further positions the Guardians as favorites.

For those analyzing the matchup, placing the Angels as mere slight underdogs against a struggling offense and Anderson might seem unconvincing. Personally, anything above -130 seems like a worthy gamble on the Guardians.

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